The European Debt Implosion: Hola Spain

I expect many of you are hearing about the events in Europe and wondering what the big deal is. There were 2 major events that happened in Europe last week, the French and Greek elections. The socialist parties gained major victories which signaled the end of austerity measures. This spells the end of Sarkozy, one of Germany's last allies. Bailouts are highly unpopular in the German mindset and Merkel already took massive criticism for the earlier bailouts that didn't include social program reform. Now that Sarkozy has lost, Germany will be alone in the austerity fight. You see, Germany is the only country able to bailout other insolvent countries but is unwilling to do so without imposing severe austerity measures. Socialist leaders will never agree to these terms. This could lead to the worst stalemate ever witnessed as countries like Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal will need bailouts or face defaulting on their debt. Greece has already received 2 bailouts and will still need another one, which only proves the bailouts aren't working, and Greece isn't anywhere near the size of Spain or Italy.

A bailout for Spain and Italy would be very difficult because of the amount of cash that would be needed. There are many intelligent experts predicting the breakup of the EU in its current form and also defaults by Spain and Italy. I have to admit that I think they're correct. A default by Spain would be catastrophic and make Lehman look like a summer picnic. That's the main reason the ECB is throwing everything and the kitchen sink at the default problems and hoping they disappear. As of now, it's unclear whether the policies that are to be implemented will result in hyperinflation, deflation, defaults, global austerity measures or some combination of these. What is occurring is unprecedented. Countries and central banks could default which will cause more defaults. It will be a time of great de-leveraging.

I strongly believe that there will be a major event in Europe this year that will have massive repercussions to the global financial markets (yes everywhere). I believe that we could be on the brink of the greatest wealth transfer in history. Many people will lose a lot of money and may not ever recover, but for others who are ready, there will be great opportunities to profit and help others. So far it looks like Spain will be the first to fall but events in Europe are changing by the hour. Winter is coming, make sure you can weather the storm.