***Numbers Don’t Lie … or Do They?

A.T. "Al" Benelli, CFP, FIC

Recently our government released figures showing that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of our nation rose by 3.5 percent — the first increase in five calendar quarters.

The Dow Industrial average rose 200 points as various pundits declared the end of the worst recession since 1929.

In Washington, partisan politicians cheered and claimed, “We fixed it!” — but did they? Is the economy back on track? At first glance, the numbers seem to say so, but a closer look is certainly warranted before we crank up the celebration.

The numbers released were for the third quarter, July thru September of this year.

And the numbers look good.

Ironically, July thru September is when Congress pumped billions into the “Cash for Clunkers” automotive rescue program, the new purchase housing tax credit program, the most recent installment of the big-bank bailout and hundreds of domestic infrastructure projects.

Like a monetary shot of adrenaline or a cardiac defibrillation shock, the economy seems to have awakened with a sudden burst of energy.

But will it sustain good health or slip back into critical condition?

Could it be on the verge of recovery or collapse?

With the stimulus programs of the third quarter expired or phased out, what will the fourth quarter look like?

No one will know the official GDP numbers until January. Many of us will have a general feel for what’s going on just based on our own senses of well-being and security.

Unemployment will still be high.

In the meantime, politicians will attempt to hang their hat on the Q3 numbers.

Someone once said, “timing is everything.”

Do not lose sight of that when evaluating the recent announcements of economic rehabilitation.

Election Day is here and gone and while it was an off-year for most of the big kahunas in Washington, it is never an off-year for Democrats vs. Republicans.

Could Congress have known that this latest round of numbers would be the last set of numbers released before the election was held? Gee, you think?

In the Declaration of the same name, Independence is defined as “Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”

These are not free. They all must be underwritten by a strong economy.

For the citizens of countries that are impoverished, independence and freedom are on the top of their wish list.

If the U.S. economy goes under we will not be able to maintain our independence since we will have to rely on other countries to bail us out.

When we finally hit the limit of our deficit spending and the Fed can only print worthless paper, we will be relegated to the status of a dependent nation… and the only things we will be able to offer our benefactors are the things we have taken for granted for so long… Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.

They will be the only things of value with which we can barter. Our currency will be worthless and our businesses defunct or sold off.

So enjoy the sense of improved conditions brought about by the third quarter adrenaline shot… but until Congress stops its irresponsible spending, our freedom and independence are at great risk.

Tags: calendar quarters, dow industrial average, economic rehabilitation, recession, stimulus