Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011

We forecast that Saudi Arabia will account for 37.7% of Middle East regional oil demand by 2015, while providing 36.2% of supply. Middle East regional oil use rose to an estimated 7.6mn b/d in 2010. It should average 7.9mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 and then climb to around 8.9mn b/d by 2015. Regional oil production was 22.83mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 24.5mn b/d in 2010. After an estimated 25.7mn b/d in 2011, it is set to rise to 30.5mn b/d by 2015. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 17.85mn b/d. This total will have eased to an estimated 16.88mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to reach 21.54mn b/d by 2015. Iraq has the greatest export growth potential, followed by Qatar. Browse All: Energy Market Research In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 391bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2010, with demand of 487bcm targeted for 2015, representing 25% growth. Production of an estimated 455bcm in 2010 should reach 642bcm in 2015 (+41%), which implies net exports rising to 154bcm by the end of the period. Saudi Arabia's estimated share of gas consumption in 2010 will have been 21.5%, while its share of production is put at 18.4%. By 2015, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 19.7%, with the country accounting for 15.0% of supply. The 2010 full-year outturn was US$77.45/bbl for OPEC crude, which delivered an average for North Sea Brent of US$80.34/bbl and for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) of US$79.61/bbl. The BMI price target of US$77 was reached thanks to the early onset of particularly cold weather, which drove up demand for and the price of heating oil during the closing weeks of the year. We initially set our 2011 supply, demand and price forecasts in early January, targeting global oil demand growth of 1.53% and supply growth of 1.91%. With OECD inventories at the top of their five-year average range, we set a price forecast of US$80/bbl average for the OPEC basket in 2011. The unprecedented wave of popular uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) that followed the removal of Tunisian President Ben Ali on January 14 has obviously fundamentally altered our outlook, particularly since the unrest spread to Libya in mid-February. Taking into account the risk premium that has been added to crude prices in response to actual and perceived threats to supply, we have now raised our benchmark OPEC basket price forecast to US$101.90/bbl for 2011 and to US$97.50/bbl for 2012. Based on our expectations for differentials, this gives a forecast for Brent at US$106/bbl in 2011 and US$101.50/bbl in 2012. We have kept our long-term price assumption of US$90/bbl (OPEC basket) in place of oil and gas market for the time being. Saudi Arabian real GDP rose by 3.8% in 2010 and we forecast 3.2% average annual GDP growth from 2010-2015. We expect oil demand to rise from 2.79mn b/d in 2010 to 3.38mn b/d in 2015, representing up to 3.0% annual growth beyond 2009 and broadly matching our underlying economic assumptions. Related Reports: Ukraine Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011 Turkmenistan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2011